In poring over Super Wild Card playoff odds, you mightve noticed its a bit of feast or famine. There are three games with point spreads of Corn Elder Jersey more than a touchdown including one now approaching two touchdowns and three games with spreads of 3 points or fewer.No middle ground is being given here, at least at the moment. And mi sing quarterbacks are a key reason for the bigger numbers, particularly off of Wednesday news on two AFC games.Lets dive into much more on those matchups and other Super Wild Card betting nuggets.No Tua, No ChanceLate Sunday night, WynnBet opened the game at -11. That was premised on the strong feeling that QB would not play in the 1 p.m. ET Sunday matchup.But there was still a chance Tagovailoa might play. And some of the early action came from bettors certainly hoping that was the case."The action was on the Dolphins early in the week. Monday and Tuesday, there was a po sibility that Tua was going to play in the game. We took a bet at every level 11, 10.5 and 10 on the Dolphins, but never going below 9.5," WynnBet senior trader John Manica said Wednesday evening. "The news came in today that Tua would not play, which our room was suspicious of to begin with, considering he has had multiple concu sions in a short amount of time. This has us in a wonderful position of needing the heavily favored Bills."The move back up was aggre sive. Most spots went from 9 or 9.5 all the way to 13. This is where the market stands. We have had zero interest in the Dolphins at +13 or +550 on the moneyline ."Jackson InactionSimilarly, its looking more and more as if QB (knee) will not suit up for Sunday nights clash with the defending AFC champion . WynnBet, among others, opened Cincinnati -6.5 on the rationale that Jackson, at best, would be limited and, at worst, would not play.Jackson didnt practice Wednesday, prompting several sportsbooks to stretch the Bengals from -7 out to -8.5 and even -9. With no official word on Jacksons status, WynnBet didnt push the number quite as much. After opening Bengals -6.5 (-105) late Sunday night and sitting at -7 Wednesday morning, WynnBet moved to Cincy -7.5 (-120), but no further."We have taken limit wagers at -6.5 and -7 from respectable sources," Manica said of sharp play on the Bengals. "It is still po sible that Jackson plays in the game. If that happens, the line will certainly move back down through the key number of 7. We have guarded against this po sibility and kept our number the lowest in the market on the favored Bengals."Obviously, when the Lamar news is released, the biggest move will come, and we will react accordingly. Lamar has had ample time to rest and would be a huge mi s for the Ravens if he is not ready to go in this game."Point-Differential DilemmaThe are a solid 13-4 SU this season but are just 7-9-1 ATS. One reason for that is a rather alarming stat: Minnesotas point differential reads like the outside temperature this time of year in Minneapolis.Minus 3.The Vikes somehow Ameer Abdullah Jersey got to 13 wins despite having a negative point differential. It makes Sundays matchup against the a bit more intriguing in a 4:30 p.m. ET kickoff on FOX. Especially when you recall just a few weeks ago, the Vikings needed a 61-yard final-seconds field goal to beat the visiting Giants 27-24.But Rex Beyers, head of wagering at PlayUp USA, said that the point-differential narrative is well-known by now and that perhaps the Vikes are the side this week."Everybody lines up every week to bet against Minnesota. You now have it to a point where I think theres a little value in Minnesota," Beyers said before pointing to the Vikes narrow Week 16 win vs. the Giants. "I think theyre a little better than they played that day. Anything 3 or le s, Id rather need the favorite."Minnesota is currently -3 at PlayUp and pretty much everywhere else.Sharp-Side SeahawksWith the on fire at the moment 10-0 SU and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games its no surprise they opened as double-digit home favorites against the . Most books started at 49ers -10 and got to -10.5, and there were even some -11s out there for the first game on the Super Wild Card odds board.Beyers felt -10 was the right spot, and thats where he opened. But astute bettors always shop around, checking multiple sportsbooks for the best number. In some instances earlier this week, the Niners were -10.5 and even -11.Profe sional bettors couldnt resist taking the Seahawks +11 or +10.5. And even though Beyers opening number at PlayUp was lower, it got sharp Seahawks action too."Clearly, Seattle is the sharp side. We took action at +10. That doesnt mean there wont be buyback on the 49ers. A lot of people think the Niners can win it all," Beyers said before noting the marketplace on San Francisco the past few weeks. "The 49ers were getting the cash at numbers that were too low. Now, theres a little bit of an overreaction. Myles Hartsfield Jersey I made it 10, to begin with, and its gone down."Indeed, as of late Wednesday night, the 49ers are -9.5 at most books, though PlayUp is hanging on at -10. The Niners (13-4 SU, 11-6 ATS) are the NFCs No. 2 seed, while the Seahawks (9-8 SU, 7-10 ATS) barely got into the postseason as the NFCs No. 7 seed. Kickoff is at 4:30 p.m. ET Saturday on FOX.One element that could help keep Seattle close on Saturday: the elements. Theres a 100% chance of rain in the Bay Area, and it could be heavy at times.Obviously, scoring on both sides could be impacted, and oddsmakers have reacted to that prospect. The consensus opening total was 43.5 Sunday night, and its now down to 42 at most sportsbooks.Backing Bradys BunchOK, lets get to the game that everybody is looking forward to: on Monday Night Football. Youve got trying to summon a little more playoff magic, and whats more, he and his are actually home underdogs.Of course, that status is deserved after Tampa went 8-9 straight up (SU) and a league-worst 4-12-1 against the spread (ATS) in the regular season. This is not a good football team.However, Dallas (12-5 SU, 9-7-1 ATS) didnt look good late this season, notwithstanding a 40-34 home shootout win over NFC No. 1 seed . The nearly lost at home to the dismal Houston Texans (27-23 victory), lost at Jacksonville 40-34 in overtime and then laid a Week 18 egg in a 26-6 setback at Washington.Oh, and there is that whole Tom Brady thing."The number for this game opened as Dallas a 3-point favorite against the TB12 Bucs," WynnBets Manica said. "That number lasted for about a day. Monday, we saw some two-way action on the game at the key number of 3. Tuesday, we took two limit wagers on Tampa Bay that caused us to move off the key number to Cowboys -2.5, where we stand now. The 3-point home playoff dog was too juicy for the sharps."The ticket count favors Dallas. I suspect the Cowboy backers will come out eventually. However, if the game goes back up to 3, Tampa Bay will surely be bet again."Dylan Bro sman, trading operations senior manager at FOX Bet, anticipates this line might head north of Cowboys -2.5 by the time Monday night rolls around."The spread feels about right, with 58% of tickets on the Bucs, but 51% of money on the Cowboys," Bro sman said, noting Dallas is down a half-point from the -3 opener. "I would not be surprised if some late money comes in on the Cowboys and pushes it back to -3 or -3.5."The Sharp SideA respected profe sional bettor here in Las Vegas has an opinion on half of the games on the Super Wild Card odds board. P.J. Walker Jersey He got the Vikings -2.5 vs. the Giants, the Bucs right out of the gate at +3.5 vs. the Cowboys and the Chargers -1 at the Jags.Hes particularly enthused about the Cowboys-Bucs Monday night wager."I dont trust the Dallas defense. Ive been telling a lot of people that for many weeks," he said. "Now the secondary is depleted. Dallas just does not have the pieces on the defensive side of the ball. And I dont trust them offensively to take care of the ball on the road against Tampa."I like the way wideout is getting involved for Tampa. I took +3.5 when it opened, and I recommend taking +3. If you feel frisky, grab Tampa moneyline."Two-Way PlayPerhaps not surprisingly, the game with the shortest spread is the one getting the most two-way action. On Wednesday night, the sat as 2-point favorites against the host .The Chargers (10-7 SU, 11-5-1 ATS) underperformed this season after being a trendy preseason pick in the Super Bowl odds market. Meanwhile, the Jaguars looked like they had another dismal season in store when, after Week 8, they were 2-6 SU.But & Co. won seven of their last nine games including the last five in a row (4-1 ATS) to claim the title in a dreadful AFC South, finishing at 9-8 SU (8-8-1 ATS).WynnBet opened the visiting Chargers -1.5 for this prime-time Saturday contest (8:15 p.m. ET kickoff)."Jacksonville supporters came out early and drove the number down to a pick, with several $1,000 and $2,000 wagers," Manica said. "Then the market came back quickly, as the Chargers found most of the support after the opening move that favored the Jags. This is the tightest spread of Super Wild Card Weekend and likely the most difficult game to predict, as evidenced by the two-way action we have already seen. A true to s-up."I Like Big Bets and I Cannot LieWith the NFL Super Wild Card Weekend odds board still percolating for a couple more days, theres not too much to report yet. But Caesars Sports took one very unique bet on .Midweek, Caesars has San Fran as a 10-point favorite. Yet one high-rolling customer apparently doesnt want to take any chances. The bettor put $100,000 on an alternate spread of 49ers +4.5. Yes, you read that right: the bettor has San Fran as a 4.5-point underdog.Such a bet comes at quite a premium price: -1204. So the bettor would profit a very modest $8,305.65 if the 49ers come through. Since this bet seems a mortal lock to hit, I suppose you could look at it from a return-on-investment perspective. And in this economy, 8.3% ROI is nothing to sneeze at.As for more traditional bets, Caesars reported taking a ma sive $880,000 play on Ravens +6.5. That customer is absolutely praying that an at least somewhat capable Lamar Jackson is under center Sunday night in Cincy.Finally, on Mondays College Football Playoff national championship game, there were a slew of late-arriving bets at multiple books. Most of those wagers were on , making them easy winners, as the Bulldogs blasted TCU 65-7. A sample:$550,000 on Georgia -12.5 at BetMGM; bettor wins $500,000$440,000 on Georgia -13.5 at DraftKings; bettor wins $400,000$184,404.50 (yes, 50 cents!) on Georgia moneyline -450; bettor wins $40,978.78.Pretty much none of us have that kind of disposable income. Heres hoping your much more reasonable wagers cash out this weekend.Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. Hes based in Las Vegas, where he Derrick Brown Jersey enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.Top stories from FOX Sports: NFL trending in this topic
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