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  NFL divisional round odds How to bet Cowboys-49ers (37 อ่าน)

26 ก.พ. 2567 09:51

The (13-5) and (14-4) will play in the NFC divisional round Sunday in a rematch of a game that featured one of the most famous plays in history that happened 31 years earlier.In the NFC Championship Game on Jan. 10, 1982, the 49ers beat the Cowboys 28-27 after Dwight Clark made "The Catch" in the corner of the end zone on a pa s from Joe Montana with 51 seconds remaining.The 49ers went on to win Super Bowl XVI over the , 2621.The Cowboys lead the all-time series 19-18-1 but the 49ers won the previous meeting 23-17 in the 2021 NFC wild-card round on Jan. 16.Dallas has won six of the past eight games against San Francisco since 2005.Here's everything you need from a betting perspective on the Cowboys-49ers game, from the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under, insights and expert pick (odds via ).RELATED: (13-5) at Bruce Matthews Jersey (14-4), 6:30 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX and Point spread: (49ers favored to win by more than 3.5 points, otherwise Cowboys cover)Moneyline:(bet $10 to win $14.69 total); (bet $10 to win $26 total)Total scoring Over/Under:Pick via FOX Sports NFL Analyst :This will be a brawl in the trenches and I cannot wait. While much of the attention when it comes to the Niners' offense has focused on their rookie quarterback and all the fantastic explosive offensive weapons, the heartbeat of the offense is their line.Outside of , their line isnt especially talented, but the guys play well together and understand their a signments. They stay ahead of the chains, which keeps them out of stre sful pa s protection situations. This Cowboys defensive front is outstanding, and other than against Williams, they have the advantage. It doesnt mean the 49ers cant scheme up succe s or score points, but it will be more difficult than usual.On the other side of the ball, the 49ers defensive line is going to eat. You will find no bigger fan of the Cowboys offensive line over the last seven years than me, but they are at a disadvantage in this game. vs. either Smith ( , ) is a mismatch. The young Smith at left tackle (Tyler) is not quite ready for the speed and intensity that Bosa brings, and Ryan Tannehill Jersey the elder Smith (Tyron) is playing out of a position at right tackle. and inside have the advantage over everyone but .For these reasons I believe this game will go under.PICK: Insights from FOX Sports Gambling Expert :The word of the day when it comes to this ma sive NFC clash is "projection" because these teams truly have not been tested by prior opponents like theyre about to be tested on Sunday afternoon.First, these teams havent met yet this year.Second, when these teams met in the playoffs last year, it was with nursing a badly injured thumb on his throwing hand that hurt him a ton. So Kyle Shanahan made ma sive adjustments, and the 49ers went an insane 70% run on early downs, despite the Cowboys loading the box on 88% of these plays.As expected, these runs didnt go over well. But the 49ers still were able to hold on for a 23-17 win in Dallas. But considering the conditions surrounding that game, with the 49ers run rate and quarterback injury, its hard to take much of anything away from it.Third, weve got an untested against an aggre sive Cowboys defense.And fourth, weve got playing against one of his only tough defensive challenges of the year.Since Dak Prescott returned from injury in Week 7, the Cowboys offense has played the second-easiest schedule of opposing offenses. They played just two top-10 defenses in those 12 games but were extremely succe sful in both games:Dak went 27-of-35, averaged 9.9 YPA, +0.28 EPA/att and 57% succe s in a 40-34 win over the Eagles in Week 16.Dak went 25-of-33, averaged 9.2 YPA, +0.61 EPA/att and 59% succe s in a 31-14 win Steve McNair Jersey over the last week.While that sounds great, there were a couple of clunkers along the way.Both were on the road. Prescott struggled in , completing just 5.8 YPA and averaging -0.15 EPA/att vs. the Packers, and in the final game of the year, he averaged just 3.5 YPA with -0.42 EPA/att.Now, Prescott is about to face the zone-heavy defense of the 49ers. San Francisco plays more zone (fourth-most) than any team remaining in the playoffs.Over the second half of the season, Dak has performed at a top-10 rate whether the defense has played man or zone. But one thing rings true about the 49ers' secondary, and that is throwing deep on them is their key weak point.San Franciscos defense ranks first against the run.San Franciscos defense ranks first against pa ses thrown le s than 15 yards.But San Franciscos defense ranks 31st against pa ses thrown 15-plus yards downfield, allowing +0.71 EPA and 54% succe s.In the first three quarters of games (eliminating the fourth quarter due to game script), the Cowboys have the 14th-highest pa s rate over the second half of the season.On early downs, that drops to 18th.Instead, they throw between 1-5 air yards at the highest rate in the NFL.They will need to make an adjustment there if they want to have succe s vs. the 49ers.Over the second half of the season, out of 33 quarterbacks, Dak ranked 15th in EPA/att, 11th in YPA and sixth in succe s rate when throwing 15-plus yards downfield.So hes shown he can succeed this season throwing vertically, and thats how he Harold Landry Jersey will need to attack the 49ers. Last week vs. the 49ers, only attempted eight pa ses 15-plus yards downfield, completing just three. Dak, meanwhile, completed 6-of-7 vs. the Bucs.Then there is Purdy. Since starting his first game in Week 14, hes 6-0 and has faced two of the above-average defenses that Prescott also faced (Tampa Bay and Washington).The 49ers scored 35 and 37 points in those two games, with Purdy averaging over 8.8 YPA in each contest.Purdy played extremely aggre sively last week, throwing 37% of his pa ses 20-plus yards downfield, the highest in the NFL. Since taking over for Jimmy G, in the first three quarters of games, Purdy is throwing 10-plus yards downfield at the sixth-highest rate in the NFL and 20-plus yards at the eighth-highest rate.Hes throwing 1-5 air yards at the 26th-highest rate and 1-9 air yards at the 25th-highest rate.Compare that to Jimmy G, who threw 10-plus yards downfield at the 30th-highest rate and 1-9 air yards at the 14th-highest rate.And thats the reason why Purdys aDOT in the first three quarters ranks 18th while Jimmy Gs ranked 34th.This will be the first true test for Purdy, as the Cowboys have the only top-10 pa s defense hes faced, and since playing the Bucs in Week 14, Purdy has done nothing but face below-average pa s defenses.Dallas also brings a ton of pre sure, ranking first in pre sure rate by a mile and blitzing at a below-average rate.If the Cowboys dont blitz and dont record pre sure, Purdy will certainly tear them up, as he leads the NFL in a variety of metrics, including YPA and completion rate.The wild thing about Purdy, which speaks to Shanahan, is natural pre sure, the kind that Shanahan brings with consistency, doesnt bother him at all.He ranks fourth in EPA/att, fifth in succe s rate, and fifth in YPA when pre sured but not blitzed.But when pre sured off of blitzes, that ranking drops to 18th in EPA/att, 26th in succe s rate, and 43rd in YPA out of 47 quarterbacks.When kept clean, Corey Davis Jersey Purdy is top-5 if the defense isnt blitzing and top-10 if the defense blitzes. The bottom line is, Purdy is top-5 when the defense does not blitz, whether it generates pre sure or not.That ranking drops to top-10 if the defense blitzes but doesnt generate pre sure.And it drops to below average if the defense blitzes and gets pre sure.If Prescott can hit on the deep balls and the Cowboys dont increase their blitz rate, these teams likely can combine to clear this total, but I am skeptical.Top stories from FOX Sports:for your chance to win thousands of dollars on the biggest sporting events each and every week! Just make your picks and you could win the grand prize.! NFL trending in this topic
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